The Boston Red Sox, for lack of a better term, have been pitching their dicks off. You know this is typed and not a live performance, right? Like, you could ask someone for a better term or at least think on it for a little while, Jake. Fine. I lied. It’s not because I lack a better term. In fact, I could think of countless. I just think pitching their dicks off sounds funny, so it’s staying in. Lay off. Stop talking to yourself and get to the point. Fair enough, let’s talk pitching.
Despite injuries ravaging the staff (Sonny Gray is the only pitcher from the opening day rotation still on the active roster) the starting pitcher seemingly works into the sixth inning or later every night, giving the team a chance to win the game. The latest pitcher to join the rotation is Patrick Sandoval.
Last Thursday, Sandoval made his first appearance in two years against the White Sox, throwing 4.1 innings, surrendering one run on five hits while striking out five and walking one. The outing was short, but for a first start in two years, I’d give him passing marks. Plus, the way the rest of the rotation has thrown the ball makes it easier on the bullpen, who were able to give the final 14 outs to secure the victory.
The question, as always, is: was the outing legit, or was it a case of good luck? Last week, I broke down Sandoval’s arsenal and was skeptical about how effective he would be. My major concerns were his changeup shape and the walks that have plagued him throughout his career. Those walks, in large part, are due to a four-seam fastball that doesn’t miss bats and is punished when thrown over the plate. On Thursday, he walked only one man and featured his four-seam 25% of the time, making it his third most-used pitch.
It worked in his first outing, for a few reasons. One of which was his fastball command.
For the most part, he kept his fastball at the top of the zone and above. A few leaked down over the plate, two of which went for hits, but he was largely near the top of the zone. The velocity was a pleasant surprise as well, reaching 96 mph a few times. Extra velocity is never a bad thing, but first-start-in-two-years-adrenaline might have had something to do with the extra oomph.
While the pitch worked in his first outing, it’s not a plus offering. The velocity helps, but if it settles in closer to 93 mph as expected, the location becomes that much more important. Even on Thursday with good location and higher velocity, it only returned 1 whiff on 12 swings. Because of that, he’ll need to find ways to keep hitters off of it, which means throwing strikes with his other pitches.
Wow, Jake, what a great segue. It’s almost as if you thought about the flow of the article and the order in which you’d relay the important information. What a nice thing to say, thank you. Here’s a look at his slider, which was his most-used pitch.
Unlike the fastball location, this isn’t what we’re looking for. The zone rate is low at 35%, and hitters weren’t expanding the zone either. Those factors, along with the one swing and miss returned, combined for a 50% strike rate. For a pitch leading his arsenal, that isn’t going to cut it. During his best years, the strike rate sat between 65 and 70%, though the swinging strike numbers were much higher.
If you’re looking for a reason to believe in his slider, allow me to give you one. Of the pitches he showcased on Thursday, the slider looked the most different from his previous seasons. The current shape has more lift and presents closer to a cutter. Hopefully, with time, he finds the feel for the pitch and can better locate on the glove side. The shape and velocity should allow it to play against both sides of the plate, but location will ultimately determine its effectiveness.
I’d like to talk about his changeup now, but I don’t have a natural way into it as I did above. That’s okay, Jake. We knew that was coming because we’re educated baseball fans. You’re right. You are smart fans. There’s no need for handholding.
The slow ball has always been Sandoval’s best pitch, and it continued to be on Thursday. He threw 18 of them, getting four whiffs, four called strikes, and two outs on three balls in play. He kept the ball down and away, and hitters couldn’t lay off. While a changeup alone can’t carry his whole arsenal, a changeup of Sandoval’s quality can do a lot of the heavy lifting. He can throw it in the zone for called strikes, but needs chases and whiffs to continue to be effective, which requires his other pitches going for strikes. The fastball managed to be good enough in his season debut, but it’s something to monitor going forward.
Here’s an example of what his changeup can do for him. Sandoval only got to four 3-ball counts on Thursday, but didn’t give in by throwing a fastball over the plate in three of them. In the bottom of the fourth, with a runner on first and nobody out, Sandoval went to 3-2 against Junior Perez. Sandoval doesn’t want to give Perez a free pass and put a runner in scoring position, but he still turned to his changeup rather than his fastball. Perez is looking for something hard and swings over it for strike three.
Sandoval’s changeup is his best pitch, and his ability and willingness to throw the pitch for a strike in any count is key in keeping hitters off his other pitches.
One sample is hardly enough to making a sweeping determination on how Sandoval’s season will go, but it did give us a look at what he’s trying to accomplish. I’m skeptical about his ability to locate his fastball and slider consistently to take some of the burden off the changeup. Given the mixture of injuries and young arms on the roster, they’ll need Sandoval to provide a few starts down the stretch to keep arms fresh if they continue to push for the postseason, so he’ll continue to get opportunities and try to earn himself some money in 2027.
