What a difference a year can make.
Last year at this time, football fans in New England were hoping and praying for a competent football team to put forth a respectable showing in the 2025 season. Coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and back-to-back head coach firings, Patriots fans simply wanted to see some stability that would eventually lead to some real success.
Ahead of the start of the season, we were asking Tom E. Curran and Phil Perry if the Patriots would be making the playoffs. This year, we’re asking if another trip to the AFC Championship Game is on the table.
That’s how far the Patriots have come in a short time, thanks to a 14-3 season and a trip to the Super Bowl. So, what will this year hold?
Will A.J. Brown hit the over on 1,124.5 receiving yards?
Tom E. Curran: Yes
As a matter of fact, yes! A.J. Brown will top 1,124.5 pretty easily. On 84 targets last season, coupled with a lesser passer and a less-effective offensive coordinator, Brown racked up 1,051 yards. In three of the past four years, he’s averaged more than 15.4 yards per catch. Last year, he was at 20.2. Drake Maye is a better deep-ball thrower than Jalen Hurts. And he figures to get around 110 to 120 targets, provided he stays healthy. He’ll blow that away.
Phil Perry: Yes
I think he will. Despite Drake Maye showing an affinity for spreading the ball around and hitting the open target, what Josh McDaniels has done after being given legitimate No. 1 receivers is target them. Again. And again. In Denver, McDaniels helped Brandon Marshall to a 100-catch season. In Vegas, Davante Adams had 100 catches and 1,500 yards. In 2007, with Randy Moss, Tom Brady’s new No. 1 set records. This offense will go as the connection between Maye and Brown goes, and the man calling the plays will work very hard to make sure that connection is a fruitful one. Take the over.
Will the Patriots finish top five in rushing? (Sixth with 2,191 yards last season)
Tom E. Curran: No
The Steelers (9th), Jaguars (4th), Chargers (8th), Broncos (2nd), Bears (9th), Jets (10th), Bills (12th) and Seahawks (14th) are all on the schedule. Only Seattle allowed more than 100 yards per game on the ground last year. The Patriots also figure to trail a little more often than they did last year because of the schedule. So that means fewer runs. And they had a LOT of explosive runs last year to get them to that number. Not something you can bank on.
Phil Perry: No
It surprised me to see that the Patriots ended up sixth in rushing last year. Am I the only one? I know their offense was incredibly efficient overall, but their running game wasn’t all that dynamic for much of the year. They went out of their way this offseason to try to upgrade around their backs in order to make that aspect of their offense more dependable. I think the schedule might make it harder to see the Patriots run for that much yardage again. They’ll be in closer games. They’ll see more deficits. That means more throwing. They’ll finish outside the top five in rushing, and they’ll be OK with that if their yards per rush is as good or better than last year’s (4.4).
Will the defense earn more sacks than last year? (26th in NFL with 35 sacks)
Tom E. Curran: No
The Patriots rolled up more than half their 35 sacks last season in four games, with 18 in two games against the Dolphins, one against rookie Cam Ward and the Titans, and the opener when Harold Landry was healthy against Las Vegas. Their pass rush is arguably less potent this year. And last year, it was pretty anemic. So, no. Fewer sacks this year.
Phil Perry: No
The sack numbers will likely disappoint this year. Their pass rush — at least when it came to non-blitzing situations — was one of their weaknesses last year. They’ve since lost K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry remains banged up. Rookie edge Gabe Jacas has potential but looked green in preseason. Dre’Mont Jones is a reliable option but not a snap-in-snap-out terror. The Patriots are also going to see better quarterbacks this year, which could lead to more passing and more sack opportunities, but oftentimes it’s the better quarterbacks who know when to get rid of the ball. I’ll go under 35 sacks.
Will Drake Maye finish top 3 in MVP voting?
Tom E. Curran: Yes
Yes, Drake Maye will be a top-three MVP, fella. And the three answers above provide the reasons why. They now have a far more potent offensive group around Maye with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. They probably won’t be able to run over people on a regular basis. And they will be in more games where they are down and have to throw to get back into things because other teams WILL score on them in 2026. So Maye might not be as otherworldly efficient as last season, but he will be prolific. And his numbers and the clear fact that the Patriots offense was carried by him will land him right in the top three.
Phil Perry: No
I don’t think he will, unfortunately for him. I think his play will warrant top-three consideration. No question. I just wonder if the voters will see it the same way. I thought last year he was the clear choice for MVP, given his performance and the situation around him. Instead, the award went to the more established option in Matthew Stafford. Felt like a lifetime achievement honor. If other quarterbacks are able to stay healthy, and if their numbers are close, I’m not sure the voting body will thrust Maye ahead of guys like Stafford, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and everyone’s favorite blend of quarterbacking traits, Justin Herbert.
Will the Pats have a top 8 defense (based on PPG allowed) this season? (4th with 18.8 PPG allowed last year)
Tom E. Curran: No
The Patriots are going to slip quite a bit in team defense. It’s about pass rush and the guys they are trying to pressure. In 2025, the Patriots faced Dillon Gabriel, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, and Joe Flacco as starters. Tua, by default, is the only one who’ll start for their team this season. From Darnold to Aaron Rodgers to Trevor Lawrence to Josh Allen to Caleb Williams, Jordan Love and Jared Goff, the Patriots will see them all before their bye week in mid-November.
Phil Perry: No
The EDGE position is the one spot on the Patriots defense that makes this one hard to envision. Even with a less-than-stellar unit there a year ago, they did have Landry (and playing well prior to suffering a knee injury), and Chaisson looked like a capable pass rusher from the moment he joined the team. Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr may simply blitz opposing quarterbacks over and over again in order to generate pressure, and perhaps they can hide their lack of high-end pass-rushing skill that way. But there’s a reason the best of the best at that spot are the highest-paid players on that side of the ball. They matter. They’ll land in the top half of the league, I think, but can’t say top-eight as we sit here today.
Will the Patriots make it to the AFC Championship? If so, will they win it again?
Tom E. Curran: No
The Patriots aren’t going back to the AFC Championship. The product is going to be outstanding, especially offensively. The games will be fascinating. But the improvements they’ve made on paper aren’t enough to close the gap entirely between them and the very best teams in the league on the field.
Phil Perry: Yes
I think they will get there again, actually. I’m predicting that they’ll win the division. They’ll have a home playoff game. They’ll have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, one of the best skill position groups offensively, and one of the best head coaches. New faces running the shows in Baltimore and Buffalo, I think, will help New England out a tad. The issue will be if and when they have to travel to Denver for an AFC Championship Game rematch. I think the Broncos will win that one and head to Los Angeles for Super Bowl 61.
