With an elite wide receiver now in the fold, the New England Patriots have their sights set on another Super Bowl run in 2026.
The Patriots found their new WR1 in A.J. Brown, whom they acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles last week in exchange for a 2028 first-round draft pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder. The move adds a new dimension to New England’s offense and gives quarterback Drake Maye a potentially lethal weapon in Year 3 of his promising NFL career.
Will Brown live up to the hype in Foxboro? Can he and Maye lead the Patriots to another dominant regular season?
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the 2026 Pats season to find out just how impactful Brown will be. Here are the results, featuring Brown’s season stats and New England’s regular-season record:
A.J. Brown steps up as WR1
For the Patriots to duplicate their 2025 success and make another run at a Super Bowl, they need A.J. Brown to stay healthy and be the elite receiver he’s been throughout his stellar seven-year career. According to Strat-O-Matic, Brown will hold up his end of the bargain.
The simulation projects that Brown will lead Pats pass catchers in receptions (88), yards (1,255), and touchdowns (eight). Those would be his highest reception and yardage totals since 2023, and his most TDs since 2022.
So, Brown lives up to his WR1 expectations, but do the rest of Maye’s weapons fare in 2026?
In the first season of his four-year contract with New England, ex-Green Bay Packers WR Romeo Doubs finishes with career highs in catches (62) and yards (793) but a career-low two TDs. That would be a concerning development for a wideout who’s supposed to be among Maye’s favorite red zone targets.
Veteran tight end Hunter Henry remains one of Maye’s go-to options, finishing with 59 catches, 682 yards and five TDs. Kayshon Boutte — currently the subject of trade rumors — notches 25 receptions for 350 yards and two TDs.
DeMario “Pop” Douglas contributes 24 catches, 284 yards, and one TD. Mack Hollins adds 14 catches, 173 yards and two TDs. Third-round TE Eli Raridon catches 10 passes for 93 yards in his rookie season.
A step back for Drake Maye?
Fresh off an NFL MVP runner-up season, Drake Maye will have a shiny new toy in A.J. Brown and a rock-solid No. 2 WR in Romeo Doubs. The Patriots offense should take another step forward as a result, so Maye’s numbers should only get better… right?
Not necessarily, says Strat-O-Matic.
Last year, Maye completed a league-best 72 percent of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 TDs, and eight interceptions. In the 2026 simulation, he completes 65.2 percent of his passes for 4,301 yards, 27 TDs, and 14 INTs. He also has 93 rushing attempts for 424 yards and four TDs.
It’s another encouraging year, but not on par with his MVP-caliber campaign.
1-2 punch at RB
Second-rounder TreVeyon Henderson showed flashes of his potential as a rookie. Will 2026 be his official breakout season?
Strat-O-Matic’s simulation has Henderson leading the Patriots’ running back room with 192 rushes for 885 yards (4.6 YPC) and seven TDs. The 23-year-old also makes an impact in the passing game with 37 catches, 276 yards, and three TDs.
While Henderson shines, veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson remains a difference-maker. He ends up with 180 carries for 801 yards (4.45 YPC) and six TDs. He hauls in 34 catches for 276 yards and three TDs.
2026 season results
The Patriots’ 2026 schedule looks far more difficult than last year’s, so few are expecting another 14-3 season. Still, New England should compete for the top spot in the AFC East and be good enough to make another deep playoff run.
But even with A.J. Brown now in the fold, Strat-O-Matic isn’t as optimistic about the Patriots’ odds heading into the new season.
The simulation projects a 9-8 regular-season finish for Mike Vrabel’s group, including a four-game losing streak from Week 7 to Week 10. Here’s a look at the full schedule with the sim’s results:
- Week 1 at Seattle Seahawks: 24-13 (L)
- Week 2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 34-23 (W)
- Week 3 at Jacksonville Jaguars 35-25 (L)
- Week 4 at Buffalo Bills: 44-32 (W)
- Week 5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 24-7 (W)
- Week 6 vs. New York Jets: 42-28 (W)
- Week 7 at Chicago Bears: 23-7 (L)
- Week 8 at Miami Dolphins: 21-20 (L)
- Week 9 vs. Green Bay Packers: 17-14 (L)
- Week 10 at Detroit Lions: 24-16 (L)
- Week 11: BYE
- Week 12 at Los Angeles Chargers: 20-19 (W)
- Week 13 vs. Buffalo Bills: 34-9 (L)
- Week 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings: 27-20 (W)
- Week 15 at Kansas City Chiefs: 20-6 (W)
- Week 16 at New York Jets: 43-17 (W)
- Week 17 vs. Denver Broncos: 24-16 (L)
- Week 18 vs. Miami Dolphins: 20-19 (W)
