If you were plotting out the season before this weekend, taking two of three games against the Astros might have been a nice consolation prize. Losing two instead, when the Astros are a bad team – great offense, poor pitching – is of no consolation. The Red Sox sit 10 games back in the AL East. The Orioles are losers of four straight and at 15-19. But the Sox have lost two in a row, falling to 13-21. Even keeping up with fourth place is seemingly too much right now. They are still just 3.5 games out of a wild card. The season is not over. But it is infuriating to watch. And if they keep playing like this, the math is going to turn on them.
Next up on the gauntlet of pain is the Detroit Tigers. The Sox will fly to Michigan for three days and then come back to Boston for a four-game set with the Rays before (thank god) the Phillies come to town. One of the only teams seemingly more cursed the Boston this year.
The Tigers are in second place in the AL Central. They have an 18-17 record. Detroit is 5-5 over their last 10 games. Boston is 4-6.
There’s no sugarcoating the pitching matchups. Boston wouldn’t be favored in any of these, depending on TBD. You’d almost want to move Tolle to Wednesday to try and salvage one game against Flaherty. However, Mass Pike has it in him to go toe-to-toe with Skubal. Detroit’s ace striking out 10 over 6.0 innings though needs to be countered for that to happen. He’s topped out at 7 Ks in all his other starts.
Brayan Bello is a disaster. There is no forecasting winning a game he appears in at the moment. He’s worth -1.2 bWAR. Caleb Durbin, for all his troubles, is worth positive WAR.
There are three pitchers who can be called up for Wednesday, in what would have been Garrett Crochet’s turn in the rotation: Jack Anderson, Eduardo Rivera, and Tyler Uberstine. Sonny Gray could also conceivably come back Wednesday. Bullpen game? Hard to do when the ‘pen is needed so much.
Kevin McGonigle is their star and best hitter. Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, and Colt Keith follow. But this is still a team around .500 for a reason. Unfortunately that reason is good pitching and the Red Sox are an exploitable offense.
On August 8th, 2004 Tim Wakefield gave up 6 home runs to the Tigers but Boston won the game 11-9. Wakefield said “I’m glad we won, but that’s just because the offense scored more runs than I gave up.” The 2026 Sox need more of this. More runs, mainly.
The offense had 9 hits on Sunday, 8 on Saturday, and 10 on Friday. It’s improving slowly but surely. They need more to bail out the pitchers who have to walk a tightrope every night.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Monday, May 4: Payton Tolle (3.38 ERA / 2.96 FIP) vs. Tarik Skubal (2.70 ERA / 2.16 FIP)
Tuesday, May 5: Brayan Bello (9.12 ERA / 4.98 FIP), or possibly an opener vs. Framber Valdez (3.35 ERA / 3.87 FIP)
Wednesday, April 6: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Jack Flaherty (5.90 ERA / 3.50 FIP)
Monday, May 4: 6:40 PM on NESN
Tuesday, April 5: 6:40 PM ET on NESN
Wednesday, April 6: 6:40 PM ET on NESN
