Which teams should the Boston Celtics desire to emerge as the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference: the Orlando Magic or the Philadelphia 76ers?
The simple answer: If you’re a team with legitimate title aspirations, it really shouldn’t matter who emerges. But each team presents unique challenges as the Celtics begin a postseason stay with elevated expectations.
The Sixers host the Magic on Wednesday night in a play-in matchup to determine Boston’s first-round opponent.
Since the start of the play-in tournament in 2020, the teams that emerge as the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in their conferences have rarely even threatened their first-round opponent. Maybe the only notable outlier — and Celtics fans don’t need a reminder on this one — is the 2023 Miami Heat, who surged to the NBA Finals while ousting the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals along the way.
The Magic and Sixers, two of the more disappointing teams in the East this season, have the sort of talent that can make them seem more daunting than their record might suggest. Health has hindered both teams this season, but neither has displayed the sort of consistency necessary to push a top-tier opponent in a seven-game series.
The Celtics owned the NBA’s No. 2 offense, the No. 4 defense and the fourth-best net rating (+8.3, just a fraction of a point behind the Pistons and Spurs who tied for second at +8.4). The Sixers ranked 16th in offensive rating, 17th in defensive rating, and 18th in net rating (-0.1). The Magic ranked 18th in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating, and 17th in net rating (+0.6).
To determine how these teams might fare in a playoff series, we crunched the numbers to check how Orlando and Philadelphia played against teams in the Top 10 in point differential, offensive rating, and defensive rating.
We’ll compare that to how Boston fared against teams in the middle 10 of the same categories (all data via Cleaning the Glass):
Despite their overall struggles against top-tier opponents, the Sixers did win two games against Boston early in the season. The Magic took the first meeting of the season against the Celtics. What’s wild is that, by November 23, the Celtics had played both the Sixers and Magic three times apiece over their first 17 games.
Boston won the only late-season matchups against both teams, posting a double-digit win over Philadelphia in early March, then watching the Stay Ready Squad run wild in Sunday’s regular-season finale against Orlando.
The Celtics finished 2-2 against Philadelphia. Notably, they shot just 30.9 percent on 3-pointers in the regular-season series, a number that helps explains how Philadelphia took two of the first three meetings. The Celtics went 3-1 against Orlando, shooting 39.2 percent beyond the arc in that regular-season series.
Regardless of what the numbers suggest, each team presents at least one unique fear factor.
Orlando’s biggest fear factor
While their defense hasn’t been nearly as sharp as the group that finished second in the NBA in defensive rating last season, the Magic can be an extremely physical team. When Jalen Suggs is healthy, the team’s numbers perk up on both ends of the court.
Orlando’s preferred starting five of Suggs, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, and Wendell Carter Jr. has the potential to stress a top-caliber offense. That group simply hasn’t been healthy at the same time enough this season. Orlando’s preferred five has a +11.6 net rating over 182 minutes in 19 games together.
Even after dispatching the Magic in five games last season, the Celtics limped out of that series a bit — Jayson Tatum even missed Game 2 due to injury — and it’s fair to wonder if that contributed at all to Boston twice letting go of big leads at the start of the Knicks series.
Kristaps Porzingis had a strong reaction to the Magic’s physicality through the first two games of the series
Philly’s biggest fear factor
The Sixers live in a state of perpetual absence. Joel Embiid underwent an emergency appendectomy at the finish line of the season and is expected to be sidelined for the series. Paul George missed 25 games for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy, though he put up solid numbers since his return.
The trouble with gauging the Sixers is that they basically have no five-man lineups without Embiid that played a decent sample this season (only one non-Embiid lineup with 100+ minutes). The starting lineup that closed the regular season — George, Adem Bona, Kelly Oubre Jr., Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe — had a minus-32.4 net rating in just 30 minutes together over six games.
Still, Maxey was an MVP candidate for much of the early portion of the season and the Celtics have struggled to contain him throughout his career. Edgecombe produced some of his best rookie ball against Boston. The backcourt is daunting now and certainly will be in the future.
Will clutch matter?
One of the few areas that both Orlando and Philadelphia have actually posted solid numbers is in clutch situations (games within five points in the final five minutes).
Orlando finished with the most clutch wins in the NBA (27, tied with Detroit). The Magic boasted a .628 winning percentage in clutch games despite posting a middling net rating of +1.3 in those games (which was actually one spot behind 13th-ranked Boston at +1.9 net rating).
The Sixers owned the best clutch-time defense in the entire NBA, holding opponents to a defensive rating of 98.6 in 174 minutes of clutch play. The 76ers were still only 23-18 in clutch games (.560).
Boston was 16-17 in 33 clutch games but played the sixth-fewest clutch minutes in the league.
One thing that the Celtics have emphasized — particularly during their 2024 title run — is that regular-season clutch performance is not indicative of postseason success. Even with its new-look roster, Boston’s core has been through a number of high-leverage games and pressure-packed situations.
The Celtics were 6-0 in clutch games during their march to the 2024 title while posting a +46.9 net rating in those minutes.
The bottom line
The Celtics should feel confident regardless of which opponent emerges. The Round 1 fear isn’t necessarily losing that matchup, but how much that opponent is able to push you given the overall grind required during a lengthy playoff stay.
Boston is a different team than what the Sixers and Magic saw early in the 2025-26 campaign. Tatum is back now, and didn’t play against either squad this season. The Celtics shored up a lot of what ailed them out of the gates to start the new campaign, particularly in rebounding the basketball.
The Celtics’ playoff journey starts Sunday at TD Garden (1 p.m. ET). They will be well prepared for whoever is on the other side.
