Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Next up, a future star who was recently posted by NPB.
Who is he and where does he come from?
Munetaka Murakami is a left-handed hitting 25-year-old who has been playing in Japan’s NPB—and absolutely tearing it up offensively—since he was a teenager. Recently posted by the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, he’s about to become a big leaguer in MLB. He has until December 22 at 5 p.m. ET to pass a physical and sign on the dotted line.
He played third base in Japan and spent a bit of time at first base too. Forgive me for treating that like an afterthought but defense isn’t his calling card. He could technically play at either or both corners, but he’s better suited to first base than third, and honestly, he really should be a full-time DH.
Murakami broke the NPB single-season home-run record for a Japanese-born player. He’s won two back-to-back Central League MVP awards in Japan and helped his team win a Japan Series title. He was a star for Japan in the World Baseball Classic in 2023, clobbering a walk-off double, then hitting a second-deck home run with an exit velo of 115 mph in the championship game, on the way to defeating the US.
One offseason ranking named Murakami the seventh-best free agent this year, and teams are salivating over what his ceiling might be.
Offensively, he’s been compared to Shohei Ohtani—and not simply because they’re both from Japan. They had very similar profiles at the dawn of their respective MLB careers.
To look at it through another lens, he is known as Murakami-sama in Japan. Fans call him that because only a kami-sama, a god, could do what he does at the plate. And that nickname was Japan’s Word of the Year in 2022 which is one of the coolest accolades you could ever achieve. Even Taylor Swift has never done that, to my knowledge.
Let’s drill down to some numbers.
He finished in the top five in homers in NPB in 2025, even though he played only one-third of the games (due to injury).
His max exit velocity in 2025 was 116.5 mph—harder than all but 23 MLB sluggers. That elite list includes several 2025 Home Run Derby participants, as well as Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani.
TL;DR, just give me his 2025 stats
In 56 games Murakami’s slash line was .273/.379/.663, to go along with 22 home runs and 47 RBI. He’s no speedster but not a slouch on the bases either; he also stole four bases.
Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
He has a sky-high ceiling as a power hitter. He’s young and exciting. Third base is open right now, and first base is uncertain. And it sure would be nice to gobble up all the best players, Dodgers-style.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
Even with all the potential he has, Murakami is known to struggle with high velocity, and with secondary pitches. The transition to MLB will exacerbate these weaknesses, since Murakami will face better pitchers and be exposed to more speed and more secondary pitches than he’s seen before.
He also strikes out a lot (not a surprise, with all those home runs), and his rate has been increasing over the past three seasons. In 2025 in Japan, his whiff rate was 36.7%, and strikeout rate was 28.6%. That’s high for NPB, and would measure among the highest in MLB too. As discussed, Japanese hitters tend to lose a little of their shine when they face tougher MLB pitching, so you can count on his strikeout numbers going up, and on his contact rate going down.
The thing about his contact rate, though: it’s already gone down, steadily, over the past several seasons. In 2025, his contact rate on pitches in the zone was 72.6%, which was last among qualified hitters in NPB. The MLB average is 82.5%. That’s the average, but even power hitters who strike out a lot have contact rates above 75%. For comparison, in 2025, Ohtani’s was 78.6%, Aaron Judge’s was 79.6%, and Cal Raleigh’s was 81.3% (take that, Judge). Again, we’ll expect Murakami’s rate to fall still further once he enters MLB and faces tougher pitching than he’s competed against before.
His defense is an issue, with -92 DRS at third base in 696 games, and -25 DRS at first base in 263 games. Can the Sox afford that?
Although the corner positions are certainly in flux at the moment for the Sox, we still have a first baseman in Triston Casas. More importantly, the Red Sox claim they’ve entered a new era, where defense will become a priority (thank god). If this is true, Murakami isn’t our guy because his game is as a hitter, period. We’ve been down this road with Rafael Devers, and still have DH-only Masataka Yoshida on the roster, as well as a number of others who might slot in and out at DH every day.
What would it take to get him?
Some projections say 5-6 years at $17-20M per year; some go quite a bit lower because of the unknowns of moving to MLB, as well as the decrease in production, and perhaps his recent injury too (he missed quite a bit of the 2025 season with an oblique injury). Some think that Murakami will beat any projection out there because recent history says that’s what happens when you’re a highly talented young slugger on the free agent market.
No matter what, the lucky winner must pay the Swallows a posting fee of $9.275M, plus 15% of any contract amount over $50M. For example, the hypothetical six-year $140M contract predicted by CBS Sports would bring a $22.775M posting fee on top of that.
Here’s his home run into the upper deck in the final game of the World Baseball Classic in 2023. Towering.
All accounts say Murakami-sama is an extremely competitive guy, so I’ll assume that he’s really motivated to work on improving his contact rate, reducing strikeouts, and adapting quickly to MLB pitching. I’ll keep assuming and say that he’ll succeed in doing that, which could make him a truly special hitter. My argument isn’t with his offensive potential.
I’m going to Pass because, to me, signing Murakami would feel like taking a step backwards for the Sox. Now that the Red Sox have pledged to work on defensive fundamentals throughout the organization, this isn’t the time to make a huge commitment to a poor fielder. And the truth i that, I don’t trust Alex Cora or other powers-that-be to refrain from tinkering with whatever positional flexibility might exist here. I can just imagine moving Murakami around: both corners, in and out of DH, and god help me, he’s got one game under his belt in the outfield, maybe AC wants to run him out there while Ceddanne Rafaela plays second base because of matchups. No thank you! We got a taste of some pretty sweet infield defense in 2025 (while Ceddanne solidified his reputation in center) and it was glorious. Commit to the bit and see things through on defense now.
