Off the field, owners and players are digging in for what promises to be a painful and shameful labor dispute. But before we get to that, we still have some action to settle on the field. Specifically, an NLCS matchup that almost perfectly prepares us the imminent conflict.
Yes, in classic baseball fashion, the sport has once again found a way mirror the issue of the day. Namely: Does MLB need a salary cap?
In one corner, we have the Dodgers and their Pacific rim empire. They have all of the money, all of the stars, and are gunning to become the first three-peat champions of this century. Just as importantly, a large segment of MLB fans from coast to coast believe the only reason they’re this close to a three-peat is because they have all of the money and all of the stars. This means — whether these beliefs are true or not — the Dodgers also might hold the keys the owners need to sell a salary cap to the fans.
That may sound crazy at first glance, but if the Dodgers don’t win, we instantly morph into an entirely different landscape. Consider the following:
1) The three American League teams to enter the season with the lowest payrolls were the Guardians, White Sox and Rays. They are now the last three teams standing on AL side of the board. (In other words, you’re guaranteed to have at least one small market / low payroll team in the World Series.)
2) The Mets spent over $350 million this year and finished in last place. (In a vacuum, a strong case that Dodger level spending isn’t necessarily an automatic ticket to success.)
3) The Brewers play in Milwaukee, which is MLB’s smallest market.
Could the stakes be any higher for the owners and players in terms of how the upcoming winter work stoppage is going to play with the general public? If the Brewers win, you’re guaranteed an all small market/low payroll World Series. Any rational argument for a salary cap is dead on arrival (although the owners will still be trying like hell to implement one). In short, the owners could be picking the worst possible year to make their case for a cap.
But if the Dodgers win, the owners can and will sell the following narrative to a receptive and captive audience: “It’s not fair! The big bad billionaire behemoths are blowing everybody out of the water.” In short, a third straight Dodger World Series win would make the owners’ case for a cap in the name of maintaining competitive balance — Even though we know the real reason is they just want more money.
I’m of course oversimplifying things, but those two scenarios are very different worlds. Right or wrong, the outcome of Brewers vs. Dodgers will change the public perception on this issue, and which side the public puts more pressure on during the stoppage matters.
Make no mistake, a lockout is coming no matter what. Both sides are going to draw a line in the sand and retreat to their trench. However, whether that happens in a world where the Dodger dynasty is at the peak of its power or in a world where two small market teams prove you can win on limited resources might tip the scales. It’s basically the difference between starting a war on a sunny day or starting a war trying to invade Russia on the first day of winter.
The background conditions will play a huge roll in the upcoming negotiations, and while fans have no seat at the table, it looks like the baseball gods will get to decide which way the wind is blowing when the owners and players fully engage in their pissing match.
