The plan as of right now is for the Red Sox and Cubs to play a double header on Friday with start times of 1:05pm and 6:05 pm in an effort to get as much baseball in as possible before the onset of this weekend’s nor’easter. This is going to be a highly interesting scenario because while all models have come into agreement on the idea of there being strong, slow moving, and retrograding nor’easter, there’s actually quite a bit of disagreement on the initial timing and position of the low.
Let’s take a look at a couple of examples with both of the following maps valid for 4:00pm on Friday afternoon. First up, the RGEM (short range Canadian model):
This one has the low moving much quicker to the north initially before stalling and running into the block. If correct, harsh, full blown nor’easter conditions would arrive during the first game of the double header and we’d be in big trouble in trying to complete all three over the weekend.
But then there’s other short range models like the HRRR that handle things completely different:
Here, we see the low much further south during that same late Friday afternoon timeframe. As a result, the initial push of moisture into eastern Massachusetts is actually falling apart as it comes north in favor of newer, more powerful bands forming to the south closer to the low.
And you know what? If I had to guess based on all the data I’m looking at right now, I think the HRRR is closer to to the bone here. This makes me think we’re going to be dealing with a situation where they try and play baseball in some rain (maybe even on and off rain) Friday afternoon and evening to get these first two games in the books. A lot of this depends on what type of conditions MLB is willing to play through, but given what’s coming on Saturday, my guess is their tolerance is going to be pretty high and they push to get the games in.
In addition to the rain though, there will be wind, and despite the uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of the moisture moving in on Friday before conditions further deteriorate over the weekend, I have a high degree of confidence the wind will be howling well before any rain gets there. The National Weather Service has already issued a High Wind Watch for Boston calling for gusts up to 50mph through Saturday evening. During the late Friday afternoon and evening timeframe, I would expect northerly gusts top 35 mph even before the precipitation arrives.
This means you should have incredibly blustery conditions blowing in from left field during whatever baseball is played on Friday. It won’t be great for fans, but it could be good for Patrick Sandoval’s ERA assuming he takes the mound at some point tomorrow.
Either way, this has the potential to get messy if all three games are needed to determine playoff seeding, and given that likelihood (the Cubs are a game behind the Padres for the top Wild Card spot while holding the tiebreaker), we’re probably going to see baseball played in some pretty crazy conditions at some point.
