The Boston Red Sox haven’t officially clinched a postseason spot, but all signs point toward a Wild Card Series rematch at Yankee Stadium.
Pitching depth was a problem for the Red Sox in last year’s playoff meeting with the Yankees. Their ace Garrett Crochet propelled them to victory in Game 1, but Brayan Bello and an inexperienced Connelly Early couldn’t get the job done in Games 2 and 3.
This time, Boston’s pitching will be a strength. Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray, rookie southpaw Payton Tolle, and veteran lefty Ranger Suarez can go toe-to-toe with most clubs’ 1-through-3. The question is, what’s the optimal order to put them in for the three-game Wild Card Series?
It’s a good problem to have, and there’s really no wrong answer. That said, here’s our ideal Wild Card Series rotation for Boston as it looks to avenge last year’s crushing defeat:
Justin Leger
Game 1: Sonny Gray
Gray isn’t the “sexy” pick. That would be the mustached man I have starting Game 2.
But in what’s sure to be an electrifying environment at Yankee Stadium, I want a dependable veteran on the mound to begin the series. I want Mr. Consistency.
All season long, Gray has fit that description.
Gray has a 17-5 record (tied for MLB lead in wins) with a 2.76 ERA through 27 starts. Since Crochet went down with an early-season injury, the 36-year-old has stepped up as the Red Sox’ de facto ace with 18 quality starts (tied for seventh in MLB).
Unlike Tolle, Gray has plenty of experience pitching at Yankee Stadium. He’s had his fair share of rough starts there throughout his 14-year career, especially during his brief stint with New York, but he was solid there earlier this season with three earned runs across 6.1 innings pitched in a 5-3 victory. In his other start against the Yankees at Fenway Park, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning.
It’ll be an uphill battle for the Red Sox regardless of who’s on the mound, because Cy Young frontrunner Cam Schlittler will be poised to shut down Boston’s bats yet again. Still, Gray can be counted on to give the Sox a chance to win, and if they lose, they’ll have great options to lean on in Games 2 and 3.
Game 2: Payton Tolle
If Tolle is named the Red Sox’ Game 1 starter, I won’t complain. I’d be slightly concerned that his 0.1 IP in last year’s Wild Card Series marks his only experience pitching at Yankee Stadium, but that isn’t worth panicking about. He seems built for the bright lights.
Tolle looked sharp in both of his starts against the Yankees at Fenway this season. During his first outing in April, the 23-year-old allowed just one run on three hits across six innings. In his second start against them in June, he carried a perfect game into the sixth inning, finishing with no runs and just one hit allowed over seven innings pitched.
Those were two of many outings this season in which Tolle has looked like an ace. He’ll have to perform like one throughout Boston’s postseason run, and if he gets the ball in Game 2, he might be counted on to keep Boston’s season alive.
Game 3: Ranger Suarez
If it comes down to a do-or-die Game 3, I feel great about Ranger Suarez taking the mound. The 31-year-old veteran has the postseason pedigree with an impressive 1.48 ERA in 11 career appearances (eight starts) with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Suarez endured a second-half slump but has looked more like himself in his last two outings. After tossing seven shutout innings against the Baltimore Orioles on Sept. 4, he allowed just one run across seven innings while striking out eight Kansas City Royals hitters on Saturday. This is the version of Suarez the Red Sox expected to get when they signed him to a five-year, $130 million contract in the offseason.
If Suarez struggles, the Red Sox will have the luxury of an elite bullpen to lean on. Brayan Bello has been an excellent bulk option since reverting to a relief role. Jake Bennett could be a legitimate weapon out of the ‘pen as well, along with Crochet if he returns in time from his injury.
Mitchael Hurley
Game 1: Payton Tolle
I’m not opposed to statistics influencing baseball decisions. I rely on statistics more than I should.
But in this case, I don’t think they matter. If you’ve watched the Red Sox this year, it could not be more clear that Payton Tolle is very much the heart and soul of this team. And the idea of sending him out onto the mound at Yankee Stadium with the whole baseball world watching just feels like the obvious choice.
If the Red Sox are going to win a series like this one, they’re going to need to be the team with more energy. Nobody would bring more juice to the mound than Tolle. If he can step onto the field on a rainy Sunday four hours after first pitch was scheduled and instantly deliver an immaculate inning in the first, it’s frightening to think what type of energy he can bring to a Game 1 start.
The Yankees have struggled against him this year, but even if they hadn’t, I’ve gotta send Tolle to the mound for Game 1.
Game 2: Sonny Gray
In another year, in another circumstance, the 36-year-old Sonny Gray would be in line to win his first career Cy Young Award.
Of course, Cam Schlittler, the Yankees’ presumed Game 1 starter, has wrecked any and all Cy Young debate with his sterling season in New York. Still, Gray is having one of the best seasons of his 14-year career, and he has to pitch in this series.
He did allow a pair of homers in his lone start at Yankee Stadium this season, and he’s given up 22 homers in 23 appearances there in his career. With the short porch looming and the crowd always looking to erupt, that would be my concern.
But Gray’s been great all year, he’s been great down the stretch, and the Red Sox will ensure that he’s properly rested for this one.
Game 3: Ranger Suarez
Would it look bad if the Red Sox potentially lost the series in two games and never sent Ranger Suarez and his 1.48 postseason ERA to the mound? It sure would.
But given the years that Tolle and Gray have had, I think the Red Sox could live with it.
There is some concern that he got rocked in the Bronx on Aug. 30 (six earned runs in 5.1 innings), but he also allowed one run in six innings in his first start at Yankee Stadium earlier in the season.
Considering the Red Sox had to send rookie Connelly Early out there in Game 3 a year ago to make his fifth career start, the team is clearly in a much better position if another Game 3 awaits them in the Bronx.
