The Boston Red Sox made their first major move of the offseason on Tuesday, acquiring three-time All-Star right-hander Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. Gray will add much-needed depth to Boston’s starting rotation, but what kind of upside does the 36-year-old offer at this stage of his career?
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow clearly still thinks highly of the 13-year veteran as he parted ways with right-hander Richard Fitts and promising left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke. Gray is owed $41 million in 2026, but the Cardinals will pay $20 million of that hefty salary. So with a price tag of about $21 million, the Red Sox will owe Gray roughly what they would have paid Lucas Giolito had they extended the fellow righty a qualifying offer.
Gray makes perfect sense as a Giolito replacement, and contrary to popular belief, he’s still capable of taking on the No. 2 starter role behind Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet next season if Boston doesn’t add another big arm. Here’s a deeper dive into Gray’s recent numbers, which should make Sox fans optimistic about Breslow’s latest move.
Stats show Gray was unlucky in 2025
A quick glance at Sonny Gray’s Baseball Reference page may leave some Sox fans scratching their heads. His 2025 ERA (4.28) marked his worst since 2021, and his 1.23 WHIP was his highest since 2018. However, a closer look shows he may still have some of his All-Star stuff.
Gray’s FIP last season was a respectable 3.39, so a good chunk of those runs that contributed to his 4.28 ERA were out of his control. That was the fourth-largest FIP/ERA gap among qualified right-handed starters in 2025.
Sticking to the idea of Gray as a Giolito replacement, Giolito was the antithesis of Gray in 2025. He finished the campaign with a rock-solid 3.41 ERA but a 4.17 FIP, indicating he had some luck on his side.
Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet… Sonny Gray?
In 2025, Gray struck out 201 hitters while walking only 38 over 32 starts. Those impressive totals gave him the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the National League and the fourth-best in MLB, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Bryan Woo.
That was no fluke. In 2024, Gray notched 203 strikeouts and 39 walks over 28 starts. He and Crochet are among the five MLB pitchers to record at least 200 strikeouts in each of the last two seasons, per ESPN.
A stabilizing presence
Unlike some of the veteran hurlers Boston has brought in over the last few years, Gray has been remarkably durable. Age hasn’t changed that as the 36-year-old made 32 starts in 2023, 28 in 2024, and 32 again in 2025. He has pitched 166 or more innings in each of the past three seasons.
Even if he’s no longer an All-Star-caliber arm, Gray should provide value as an innings eater who can post every fifth day.
Projections love Gray for 2026
Steamer projections, which are widely used to predict future performance in baseball, are high on Gray for next season. The model has Gray finishing 2026 with a 3.68 ERA, a 3.44 FIP, and a 3.9 fWAR that ranks 10th among MLB starters and fifth in the AL. If these projections are even remotely accurate, Gray profiles as a legitimate No. 2 for the Red Sox.
That said, Breslow and Co. shouldn’t shy away from adding another impact arm (Joe Ryan, anyone?) to the mix.
