FOXBORO — Progress has not always been linear for Drake Maye, but the future still looks bright for the young Patriots quarterback.
It appears Maye is beginning to take a second-year leap this season while playing for a new head coach in Mike Vrabel, in a new system under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and with improved pass-catchers and an upgraded offensive line.
But Maye has also still played inconsistently through the first three weeks of the season as he’s led the Patriots to a 1-2 record. Depending on what stat you’re weighing, Maye has either already ascended into the upper echelon of quarterbacks or he’s a young, turnover-prone passer only still flashing traits.
Let’s dive deeper into those numbers to find out where Maye really stands among NFL quarterbacks.
Let’s start extremely surface level. Maye is completing 72.6% of his passes for 785 yards with five touchdowns, two interceptions and a 101.3 passer rating. He ranks second in completion percentage, fifth in yards, 13th in yards per attempt, seventh in touchdowns, 13th-highest in interceptions and ninth in passer rating. That paints the picture of a top-10 quarterback in the NFL.
Going more advanced, Maye ranks sixth in total EPA (expected points added), eighth in EPA/play, fifth in completion percentage over expected, seventh in success rate and seventh in accuracy rate. Once again, it appears Maye ranks as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and that he’s already taken the requisite jump this season.
Those stats don’t account for the Patriots’ opponents, however. All of the Patriots’ first three opponents rank in the bottom seven in defensive passing DVOA (defense adjusted value over average). The Raiders, Dolphins and Steelers all rank in the bottom 11 of total DVOA, as well.
Maye’s DVOA this season ranks 14th. He ranks 15th in QBR, an ESPN stat that also adjusts for quality of opponent.
Maye also already has three turnovers on the season. FTN has him charted with four turnover-worthy throws. PFF charted him with four turnover-worthy plays. He ranks 13th-highest in FTN’s turnover-worthy throw rate, and he ranks 13th-highest in PFF’s turnover-worthy play rate. He ranked 11th-highest in turnover-worthy throw rate in 2024 and third-highest in turnover-worthy play rate, so it’s an ongoing issue that bears monitoring.
Maye’s averaging one actual turnover per game. In his career, he’s averaging 1.19 turnovers per game, which ranks him fifth among active QBs with at least 10 games played. He ranks below Jameis Winston, Will Levis, Bailey Zappe and Sam Howell and just above Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Joshua Dobbs, Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold.
“Turnovers in this league are such a big deal,” Maye said Wednesday. “It’s one of those things that we can clean up. Holding onto the football, me holding on in the pocket and the running backs is something that I do think is fixable. It’s something that you try to overemphasize, and usually when you overemphasize things, you fix it. Something throughout the week is just trying to do the extra little things to protect it, and me in the pocket, ensure there’s two hands on it and just know when the play is over.”
In Week 3, Maye had two turnovers, and both came at pivotal moments of the game. He was intercepted on third down in the red zone to finish the first half when a target into the end zone intended for Kayshon Boutte was tipped at the line and picked off. Both Maye and Vrabel both said Maye’s pass should have been arced more. He also fumbled midway through the fourth quarter while the score was tied 14-14 and the Patriots were driving for a go-ahead score at the Steelers’ 33-yard line. And those are the stories that raw data can’t tell.
For Maye, wins and losses are still the most important stat.
“Winning matters to me. That’s the main goal. It’s why I play this position, why I play this sport,” Maye said. “With quarterback, the ultimate stat is wins. So, that’s the biggest thing that I focus on. If that’s throwing 10 touchdowns in a game or throwing one pass in a game, just trying to win.”
Maye is officially 4-11 as a starter, but he didn’t finish two of those wins last season. So, in games that he started and finished, he’s only 2-11 in his young career.
So far this season, Maye ranks 14th among 32 QBs in overall PFF grade and 12th in passing grade. He ranks 18th in The Ringer’s QB rankings, formulated by Steven Ruiz, and FOX Sports’ QB stock market, put together by Henry McKenna. He’s 14th in The Athletic’s QB stock report, assembled by Jeff Howe.
It’s fair to say, based on data, circumstances, context and supporting cast, that Maye is currently outside of the top 10 NFL QBs but firmly above the bottom third. He has the traits to land inside the top 10 by season’s end, and he can take that full second-year leap if he can begin to limit his turnovers.
