Any baseball season has its share of ups and downs, but the 2026 Red Sox take the cake for extremes. For today, I want to break down the rollercoaster into three parts, with a particular focus on the last two.
- In the first 78 games of the season, the Red Sox were horrible, going 32-46.
- In their next 37 games, they were historically fantastic, going 32-5.
- However, in their last 37 games, they’ve slipped into a mediocre malaise, going 18-19.
To be fair, these last 37 games come with all sorts of caveats: The first handful are guaranteed to be filled with losses because whenever you divide these things after a hot streak, you always draw the line right where the wins end. The team also seemed to run out of gas a little bit after expending so much energy in July to get back in the race, and then lately, they’ve been resting guys and trying to get things aligned for the playoffs.
But it’s the last caveat that really muddies the waters here. Not only does it obscure how good Boston might have been in September if they had to fight to the finish line, but it also poses a tricky, potentially season ending question if the Sox get this wrong. Can you just turn the magic back on whenever you want?
On one hand, we’ve already gone deep into why the Red Sox are doing the correct thing on paper in punting September thanks to the ridiculous setup MLB has for the postseason structure. However, watching these games every night after the highs of July and August is jarring. That “it” factor, whatever it is — real or perceived — is gone. Maybe it was going away anyway, but now that the Red Sox have turned it off somewhat intentionally by prioritizing rest over results, it feels like watching a hangover.
I guess what I find so uncomfortable and unsatisfying about watching this play out is that in July and August it felt like the Red Sox saved their season, and they very much did. But what does that even mean anymore? Historically, it meant you were going to get a September chock-full of meaningful games. Now, you get a sleepwalk September with a short Wild Card series that may or may not yield a glorious October run. Maybe I’m just getting old, but I don’t like that.
I want urgency in volume, and I’m nervous that after all that work, all that winning, and all those storylines that played out all summer, it’s possible the Red Sox only play two truly meaningful games after Labor Day (Game 1 and 2 in New York on September 29th and 30th). Doesn’t that feel odd?
Now of course, if they win that Wild Card series, it’s awesome! The doors to October truly open and the matchups on paper keep getting more and more favorable until / if they reach the World Series. But man, it’s such a strange dynamic. We could be living in a world where we’ve already seen the last meaningful win of this crazy 2026 Red Sox season weeks ago. Or, we could be living in a world where the last meaningful win of the 2026 Red Sox season is still be weeks away. Bonkers!
The only thing we know for sure is that we’re right in the middle of September, and there’s no urgency as the games click down. Then all at once, twelve days from now, all the urgency will hit at once like a tsunami, and the Red Sox will need to instantly recapture that magic they had all summer. Can they they do that? Can they emerge from this cocoon of complacency all at once? I don’t know.
They’re certainly doing everything they can to load the guns and the set the table for that happen, but I don’t know if you can just flip a switch like that in this sport. With each passing day, it feels more and more like this is either going to work like a dream or be a complete disaster. The magic is either going to regenerate in full force and last well into October, or it already left for good in August. We just don’t know which until we wake up when September ends.
