FOXBORO — While the conversation has raged on surrounding Drake Maye and his level of comfort within the Patriots offense through two weeks, there is one way in which the team could help their young passer settle in.
Run. The. Ball.
To this point, the Patriots are a middle-of-the-pack rushing offense. Their 4.2 yards per carry ranks 15th in the NFL and their -0.01 EPA per rush is 11th-best in football. There is, however, one specific situation in which they’ve been highly effective. And it happens to be a situation where Patriots coach Mike Vrabel has challenged them to be better.
“We’re not just going to run it for the sake of running it,” Vrabel said last week. “We’re trying to run it with a purpose and to be able to set some things up. And if you’re playing a team that is in split safety (coverage) … like, they’re in split safety to stop the pass, not to stop the run. So we should be able to run the football.”
The Patriots have made good on their coach’s request when it comes to running the football against lighter defensive fronts — often featuring two split safeties deep to protect against the explosive pass — to the point where they rank near the top of the league through two weeks.
Against light boxes, the Patriots average 9.36 yards per carry and 0.56 EPA per rush — both of which rank second in the NFL. They also sport a 64.3 percent success rate against light boxes, which ranks third in the league.
“I think it’s a fact,” Patriots left tackle Will Campbell said this week. “If you can’t run the ball against a light box in the NFL, you really don’t have a shot to be honest with you.”
How the Patriots are able to run the football in Jacksonville could go a long way in determining whether or not they’re able to push their record to 2-1.
Under defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile last season, the Jaguars utilized light boxes on 48.3 percent of their snaps, which was ninth-most in the NFL. Campanile could continue to liberally deploy light boxes again on Sunday, in some ways enticing the Patriots to hand off as the defense prioritizes stopping explosive pass plays.
“I think we improved from Week 1,” Campbell said of his team’s rushing attack against the Steelers, when TreVeyon Henderson (4.8 yards per carry) and Rhamondre Stevenson (7.2) ran for impressive averages. “Obviously there was still a little meat left on the bone. But it was good to have TreVeyon back, watch him hit a couple. ‘Mondre hit a couple. That was nice. And we’re only going to improve.”
If the Patriots want to make Maye’s life a little easier, though, they’ll have their work cut out for them in Jacksonville.
Despite playing their fair share of split-safety coverages, the overall numbers for the Jaguars defense are solid against the run. They’re 10th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry (3.8), and they’re currently in the middle of a historic stretch. They have prevented opposing rushers from hitting 75 yards on the ground in 19 straight games; that’s the fifth-longest streak in the last 50 years in the NFL, per NextGen.
Let’s dive a little deeper into this one with our Matchup Preview.
MATCHUP THAT WILL DETERMINE THE OUTCOME
Drake Maye v. Anthony Campanile
It seems to be a confluence of factors that has perhaps made Drake Maye a little less decisive than head coach Mike Vrabel has wanted him to be.
Defenses are playing Maye differently now that there is more tape on him making its way through the offices of NFL defensive coordinators. He’s also been impacted, it seems, by the talented fronts the Patriots have seen each of the last two weeks (Seattle, Pittsburgh) — and now he’ll move forward without starting right guard Mike Onwenu (injured reserve, ankle). Additionally, he’s already lost top target A.J. Brown (IR, ankle) and now has a receiver room that features players with significantly shorter resumes by comparison.
The question this week is whether or not the Jags can do anything to create additional uncertainty for the 24-year-old passer in Week 3.
One theory is that Campanile’s coverage schemes could do exactly that. Since Campanile took over at the start of last season, per NextGen Stats, the Jags have used Cover 6 — a mix of Cover 2 and Cover 4 in the secondary — on 19.6 percent of dropbacks, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL in that span.
Against Cover 6 this season, Maye has completed 10 of 15 passes for 116 yards and two picks (both in Week 1 against Seattle). Since the start of last season, against Cover 6, Maye averages 5.9 yards per attempt and does not have a touchdown pass. In that same period of time, Maye has averaged 9.3 yards per attempt against all other zone coverages, most among all quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts since Week 1 of 2025.
Maye’s work against Cover 6 is a relatively small sample when considering his overall body of work, and how he performs in those situations depends on myriad factors — play-call, situation, protection, etc. — but he’s likely to see it again this weekend. How he handles it could end up being one of the factors that determines this week’s outcome.
MATCHUP THAT WILL MAKE YOUR SUNDAY
Patriots defensive tackles v. Jaguars offensive line
This one is pretty simple. Christian Barmore picked up a strip sack that led to a touchdown. Milton Williams had three pressures. Cory Durden and Josh Farmer had four apiece. And they’re about to go up against an offensive line that just allowed two sacks, four hits and seven hurries against the Broncos.
The interior of the line for Jacksonville could be particularly problematic against the defensive tackles on New England’s sideline. Starting guards Emmanuel Pregnon and Ezra Cleveland combined to allow seven pressures in Week 2.
MATCHUP THAT WILL TAKE YEARS OFF YOUR LIFE
Jaguars heavy personnel v. Patriots nickel defense
The Jaguars are one of the best examples of offenses now being more willing to roll with heavier personnel groupings than they generally have been in the recent past. They rank sixth in 12-personnel usage (35.2 percent of snaps) and 12th in 13-personnel usage (10.5 percent), per Sumer Sports. They average 0.07 EPA per play out of “12,” which ranks 11th in the NFL.
The Patriots, meanwhile, rank 28th in EPA per play allowed to personnel groupings featuring multiple tight ends. That may be because they answer almost all personnel packages with nickel looks, featuring five defensive backs. According to Sumer, the Patriots have used nickel on 90.4 percent of their snaps, and they’ve turned to base personnel (four defensive backs) on just 8.8 percent of plays.
The Patriots’ answers for multiple tight end packages could be especially stressed this week since they’ll be without reserve safety Dell Pettus (ankle) and could be without starter Craig Woodson (shoulder).
Can they still turn to a “big nickel” — five defensive backs, three of which are safeties — if Jacksonville deploys two or three tight ends? Newcomer Jaylen Reed could very well see starter-level work alongside veteran Kevin Byard, with questions surrounding a third at that position.
Can they keep their standard nickel package on the field — with slot corner Marcus Jones on the field — out there when facing a major height and weight disadvantage against multiple tight ends?
Or will they be forced to turn to a reserve linebacker in response, perhaps rookie Namdi Obiazor, and roll out a base defense look?
None feel like great options, making this one of the potential weak points in the larger matchup for Mike Vrabel’s club.
MATCHUP THAT WILL SURPRISE YOU
Parker Washington v. Patriots secondary
How the Patriots handle the hub of the Jaguars offense will be fascinating. It falls under the category of “surprising” here because it’s a tad unclear just how the different matchups will shake out.
While Christian Gonzalez would typically do his best to smother the opposing No. 1 wideout, Jacksonville’s checks in at 5-foot-10 and 205 pounds. Parker Washington may not be built like a typical No. 1, but he’s their go-to guy, seeing 36.7 percent of Jags targets, which ranks as the second-highest target share among all NFL wideouts (behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba of Seattle), per Sumer.
Gonzalez could still see plenty of Washington, but the smaller and shiftier Marcus Jones could also be called upon to help thwart Trevor Lawrence’s favorite pass-catcher. The Patriots will have to have a plan for him both on offense and in the kicking game, where Washington is a dynamic return man.
“Man, he is extremely quick and elusive,” said Patriots special teams coach Jeremy Springer. “He’s just got a good feel for making guys miss in space. With this guy, it’s really hard to bring him down with one guy. … It’s not just speed. It’s quickness. He’s also stronger than he looks, too. He’s not just a small receiver. He breaks tackles. I could go on and on about how good he really is.”
PREDICTION: Patriots 23, Jaguars 20
