The New England Patriots and Houston Texans will look to bring themselves one step closer to ultimate glory in their divisional round matchup on Sunday.
How?
I’ve put together the keys to victory for both sides:
NE: WIN THE ONE-ON-ONE MATCHUPS
The Texans’ defensive style is legitimately fascinating, as they ranked first in total defensive EPA (-130.69) and points allowed per game (16.7) while also ranking dead last in blitz rate (21.6%) and simulated pressure rate (29.7%) — all while playing more man-coverage (67.9%) and single-high coverage (74.8%) than anyone in 2025.
Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Will Anderson Jr. make it pretty easy to take those risks…
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I don’t necessarily know if there’s a way to “take advantage” given that group’s undeniable talent, but if there was it would involve trusting the league’s most accurate deep-ball quarterback to exploit that loyalty to simplicity.
HOU: CONFUSE THE KID
Drake Maye isn’t your typical sophomore signal-caller, but there are aspects to his game that need to be cleaned up.
Maye’s unwillingness to accept defeat on individual plays is an issue, and it came back to bite him in the ass during last weekend’s wild-card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers — leading to two fumbles on five sacks.
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Houston defensive coordinator Matt Burke won’t stray from what made his defense the best in football, but perhaps making slight schematic changes can throw a wrench in things and present them with a few opportunities to take advantage of one of the youngster’s few bad habits.
NE: TIME FOR SOMETHING NEW
Josh McDaniels has plenty of friends down in Houston, Texas.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio, offensive coordinator Nick Caserio, special teams coordinator Frank Ross, offensive line coach Cole Popovich, offensive assistant Jerry Schuplinski and wide receivers coach Ben McDaniels — you can put two and two together on that one — previously worked with the guy, so they know exactly what he’s capable of and most comfortable with doing.
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I’d expect there to be a few wrinkles in the offensive gameplan — perhaps we see the Wing-T or the Wildcat. I just don’t think we’ll see that tired old flea flicker, the double pass, or that quarterback throwback he seems to be obsessed with.
HOU: RUN IT, RUN IT
It’s a simple formula; build an early lead, run the football, watch your defense dominate.
The Texans have been built to do exactly that, but the only way it works is if you’re able to run the ball effectively. Woody Marks, Nick Chubb, Jawhar Jordan, Dare Ogunbowale and British Brooks have combined for precisely two 100-yards games in 2025, but one of those came in their wild-card victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers…
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NE: WIN SECOND DOWN
“If you want to control the game, you have to win on first downs.”
No, if you want to control this game, you have to win on second down.
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Houston is the best second-down defense in football, as they force an average of eight yards to gain on third downs. New England needs to stay ahead of the chains, but especially on second down as it will allow for more options on third downs.
It’s not rocket science.
HOU: FINISH! FINISH! FINISH!
Will Campbell and Jared Wilson didn’t exactly have the best postseason debuts, giving up four sacks and 10 total pressures, and things are only going to get more difficult against a unit that ranked first in opponent passer rating (75.0), third in opponent completion percentage (58.92%) and eighth in sack percentage (7.59%).
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I’d say it’s a bit of a mismatch…
Derek Barnett, Denico Autry, Sheldon Rankins, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are pressure machines, but they’ll need to finish in order to actually make a difference in this one. Drake Maye finished with a 102.6 passer rating when under pressure in 2025.
If you’re going to stop him, you have to get home.
